OMAHA, Neb. — U.S. swimming has a problem, and no one wants to talk about it.
So let’s.
Everyone knew this moment was coming. It’s here. We are now approaching the end of the first post-Michael Phelps Trials.
And without the big guy, swimming is not the same.
Ryan Lochte after the 200 IM semis with daughter Liv // Getty Images
Hints of this were apparent two years ago, at the world championships in Gwangju, South Korea, a trial run of sorts for the Olympics. Without Michael Phelps, you have a team in search of an identity.
This is not to be critical of the rest of the universe that is not Michael Phelps. There can only be one MP.
But this is, in fact and in point, the issue.
To be clear, when swimming is on TV, the finals set to be in the morning in Japan so they can air in prime time in the United States, there is no one better — in person or on-air — than Rowdy Gaines, and it will still be great for most people who tune in, if only every four (or five) years, to listen to Dan Hicks and Rowdy do their thing. It’s a treat.
That said:
To ask most of America who is on the swim team would likely be to draw a response on the order of — um, let me think, I’m not sure, maybe Ryan Lochte? Perhaps Katie Ledecky?
Katie Ledecky is a wonderful person and an amazing champion. In and out of the pool, she carries herself with poise and grace. But she is not — to be clear, she is not trying to be, nor should she be trying to be — Michael Phelps.
Same with sprinter Simone Manuel. Manuel, who tied for gold in Rio five years ago in the women’s 100 freestyle, failed Thursday night even to qualify for the finals of the event for Tokyo. She finished ninth in the semis, two-hundredths of a second back of what she needed. She still has the 50 free but in the 100 — in which assuredly USA Swimming and others were counting on Manuel’s star power — that is no more.
Manuel, after her race, explained why.
She disclosed that she had been diagnosed in early April with “OTS, Overtraining Syndrome,” adding later that it involved “insomnia, depression, anxiety, sore muscles, like walking up the stairs to the pool, I was gassed — workouts that seemed to be easier seemed to be really hard.”
She took three weeks off, she said, then tried to get ready for Trials. In just eight weeks.
A fifth year between Olympics instead of four proved “draining,” she said. She also said, “I do think that being a Black person in America played a part in it. This last year for the Black community has been brutal, and I can’t say that that wasn’t something that I saw. It’s not something I can ignore. It was just another factor that can influence you mentally in a draining way.”
Manuel is due to race the 50 free prelims — she said she’s in — on Saturday morning. “I’m going to go for it,” she said. I don’t think that I would have showed up to Trials if I didn’t feel like I had any reason to be here. My faith is extremely important to me, and I’m confident that God wouldn’t put any more on me than I can bear. I’m just hopeful.”
Simone Manuel in the pool here in Omaha // Getty Images
In Tokyo this summer, Americans will come to know the men’s sprinter Caeleb Dressel, winner Thursday night of the men’s 100 free in 47.39, and absent something freaky Dressel surely will win a lot of medals, just as he did in Gwangju two years ago. But a good chunk of those medals will be in relays.
Asked about his expectations for the Games, he said Thursday, “You can’t win five, six, however [many] medals unless you qualify for the event. I’m focused on Trials right now.”
Dressel dominated the pool in Gwangju. His face is on the outside of the building here. Still, he heads to Tokyo with the second-fastest time in 2021 in the 100 free. A 20-year-old Russian, Kliment Kolesnikov, went 47.31 in April.
Beyond Dressel, the men’s team cannot be predicted with confidence to win much of anything. Only Dressel and Zach Apple, in 47.72, broke 48 seconds in the men’s 100 Thursday. That’s simply not promising, particularly for the men’s 4x1 relay, which generally takes four guys going 47-ish.
This is the sort of systemic issue that, weeks out, is what it is.
That said, it needs to be reiterated: this challenge must be fixed before the Los Angeles Games in 2028. For emphasis: the U.S. swim team must, repeat must, dominate in LA seven years from now.
The Japanese are hugely likely to overperform at a home Games. As they should. Who are they most likely to liberate medals from? The team traditionally at the top of the table, the Americans.
The women’s team for Tokyo meanwhile, is shaping up to deliver. Beyond Ledecky, who’s 24, at her third Olympics, and Allison Schmitt, in her 30s and at her fourth, a significant number of swimmers on the women’s team are breakthrough talents — the likes of Regan Smith, in the backstroke and butterfly — who are in their teens and early 20s. Reality: they are, at least for now, known to their family, friends, club teammates and, in some cases, high school friends.
None has a Q-factor that screams Michael Phelps.
Phelps has been an enormous presence astride U.S. — indeed, global — swimming since at least 2004, when he won eight medals at the Athens Games. In Beijing, he won eight gold. He ended his Olympic career in Rio in 2016 with a total of 28 medals, 23 gold.
For buzz purposes, the very best thing that can happen for this U.S. team — and who would have thought this after Rio, and the gas station — might well be for Lochte to qualify in the men’s 200 individual medley.
Let’s be real, again. Lochte has 12 Olympic medals, including six gold, in four Olympic appearances.
In Thursday morning’s 200 IM prelims, Lochte turned in the second-fastest time, 1:58.48, 2.23 seconds behind Andrew Michael in 1:56.25.
Now in his mid-30s, married, father of two, Lochte prepped for the semifinals, which went off at precisely 8:39 p.m. central time, by tweeting 50 minutes beforehand — to his 938,400 followers — a happy birthday and I-love-you shout-out to his 2-year-old daughter, Liv. Quite a change from his party-hard days.
Lochte raced in the first of the two semifinals. He touched in 1:58.65, fourth in his heat, moved up to three after third place-finisher Abrahm Devine got hit with a DQ. Chase Kalisz won in 1:57.19. At the end of the race, as Lochte leaned back against the wall, he shook his head in a slight no-no-no of disappointment.
Lochte’s times — evening and morning — were about the same, in swim talk 1:58-mid. But the semis, as Lochte knew well after all these years, were bound to be much, much faster than the morning swim.
As he got out of the water, he grabbed baby Liv, then gave her back to his wife, Kayla Rae, then waited for the results in the second semi.
Michael Andrew flirted with a world record — Lochte holds it, 1:54 flat — before touching in 1:55.26.
When it all settled out, Lochte made the finals, with a No. 6 seed. Andrew is one, Kalisz two. The race is Friday. Andrew would appear to be a lock for one of the two spots. The question is whether Lochte can squeeze another second, maybe more, from a 36-year-old body. Can he get to 1:57-low? 1:56-anything?
if so, there will be a guy on the team that most of America has heard of. And after all Lochte has been through, most probably will even want to root for.
Redemption — indeed, that is the most American story of all.